Welcome to our first instalment of Geopolitical Pulse, where we outline the key global risks we are monitoring and their implications for investment portfolios.
From the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine and other military risks the world over, to emerging political schisms and alliances, we review the geopolitical landscape each quarter to inform our tactical positioning and help avoid material risks to our clients’ capital.
Some of the developments we track, such as climate change, will influence our investment decisions for decades to come. Others, such as the potential for disorder or political violence around the US presidential elections, may fall away relatively quickly.
Our methodology
Geopolitical Pulse is based on a risk-monitoring approach we have developed and used for some time at Sarasin & Partners. We have found it to be a useful tool when thinking about multi-faceted, variable and often ‘fuzzy’ risks.
The qualitative methodology is simple but practical, with each risk assigned a score (1-5), a probability (1-5) and a total risk score (1-25 = risk x probability).
Our first priority is to protect our clients’ investments; we hope that Geopolitical Pulse offers some insights into the ever-shifting landscape of risks that we consider. We review events of the previous quarter to inform our tactical positioning for the period ahead.
Important information
This document is for investment professionals in the US only and should not be relied upon by private investors. If you are a private investor, you should not act or rely on this document but should contact your professional advisor.
The information on which the document is based has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, and in good faith, but we have not independently verifi ed such information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.
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This document has been prepared by Sarasin & Partners LLP (“S&P”), a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC329859, authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and approved by Sarasin Asset Management Limited (“SAM”), a limited liability company registered in England and Wales with company registration number 01497670, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and registered as an investment adviser with the US. The information in this document has not been approved or verified by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or by any state securities authority. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training.
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