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Q1 2026 HOUSE REPORT
LOOSE MONEY HARD POWER
Fresh into 2026, our latest House Report explores the themes shaping the months ahead, from the resilience of risk assets amid geopolitical tension and renewed Trump-era unpredictability, to the risks around elevated AI valuations and the payback from data-centre investment.
Latest insights
Six minute strategy: The shock that isn’t breaking markets
Iran is proving a more complex challenge than past interventions, with peace talks yet to deliver a lasting outcome and only a fragile ceasefire holding for now. Despite this, markets have remained strikingly calm, raising the question of how long this resilience can last. Guy Monson assesses the situation.
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A pause, not a peace: markets after the Iran ceasefire
Wars are, by their nature, unpredictable. Unlike recent trade conflicts where damage is easily reversible, hot wars, as we have seen with Iran, cannot simply be managed or resolved solely by Washington...
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Six minute strategy: Markets in the Crossfire: Iran, Oil and the Midterm Countdown
After what had been an almost uninterrupted bull run across global equity markets following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ speech on 2 April, markets have finally paused for breath.
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Six minute strategy: Loose money, hard power
After what had been an almost uninterrupted bull run across global equity markets following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ speech on 2 April, markets have finally paused for breath.
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Banking regulation: rhetoric versus reality
Bank regulation is being revisited, particularly in the US, but this is more refinement than deregulation. Basel 3 is still set to push capital requirements higher, and any changes are unlikely to significantly lift bank lending. Meanwhile, higher post-Covid interest rates and resilient credit quality have driven record or near-record profitability across much of the sector.
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Loose money, hard power
The past 12 months have delivered an extraordinary sequence of geopolitical shocks, many of them coming directly or indirectly from the Trump White House. They began in April last year...
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