At Sarasin’s Spring Seminars, Josh Sambrook-Smith, Equity Analyst, took attendees on a tour behind the AI curtain.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has undeniable potential to improve our lives in myriad ways. For investors, the key questions are: who will ultimately benefit from AI, and is this a responsible investment?
Anyone who has dabbled in tools such as ChatGPT and DALL.E has almost certainly been wowed by their remarkable abilities - and probably frustrated by their shortcomings. These are still early days for AI in the wider world, and we are just beginning to comprehend its amazing potential and get a feel for its limitations.
Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT and mark a step change from older AI models used to analyse medical scans or assign probabilities to outcomes such as credit defaults or next week’s weather.
What distinguishes generative AI is its ability to create completely novel outputs such as images or text that can be indistinguishable from those created by humans. At the cutting edge of generative AI are ‘multimodal’ models such as Midjourney, which translate inputs from one form, such as a text instruction, into another form, such as video.
These tools open up vast potential for increasing productivity, creativity and efficiency in industries as diverse as engineering, computing, pharmaceuticals, marketing, consultancy and the creative arts. In the investment world, the response has been enthusiastic, causing the share prices of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ largest US tech companies to rise in aggregate by over 100% in 2023[1].
Deus ex machina or just BAU?
There are - and will continue to be - companies that do very well indeed from AI, and we aim to participate in their success. These include providers of cloud services, makers of semiconductors and networking hardware, and owners of large, useful datasets.
But there is a distinct possibility that, for many, AI will not be their saviour. Rather, it could become an additional cost of doing business and keeping up with the Joneses – a cost that many companies may struggle to pass on to their customers.
While new technology can tip the balance in favour of a company, sustaining that advantage is a different matter. In the end, there is no free lunch. What really matters in the long run are more traditional considerations, such as market structure, barriers to entry, competitiveness, unique competencies, strategies and the quality of a company’s management.
Ethical AI
We must also be keenly aware of – and manage – the risks associated with AI, which include data security, deep fakes and potential to influence elections. Sarasin & Partners’ Stewardship team is participating in stakeholder groups to work with tech companies, regulators and like-minded investors to proactively manage these risks.
We are optimistic that - like most previous technological advances - AI can be a force for good, improving productivity and living standards and creating new jobs. And this could happen relatively quickly: unlike previous advances such as the railways, electrification and the internet, the infrastructure needed to disseminate AI already exists.
[1] Source: Bloomberg, as at 31 December 2023, US dollar returns
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